USDCHF is moving in the Descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Dips vs. USD on Fed Comments
The Swiss Franc is appreciated against counter pairs after the EU takes Non- Compliance investigation on Tech Giants like Apple, Meta and Alphabet. DMA Act said not to use monopoly act in Digital ecosystem be friendly with other apps which have cheaper costs to Users than your own platforms.
Swiss Franc Swings on Risk Aversion and Fed Remarks
The Swiss Franc experiences fluctuations on Monday, initially gaining amid risk aversion but later losing ground against the US Dollar. Fed officials’ cautious stance on interest rates supports the Dollar, while concerns over EU tech giants and Russian missile strikes on Kyiv fuel market uncertainty. Fed speakers emphasize a measured approach to rate cuts, contributing to a modest Dollar recovery during the US session.
GOLD – Price Holds Above $2,170 Range, Bullish Outlook Maintained
The Gold prices remain flat and ahead of US Core PCE index data scheduled this week. The UN resolution to Gaza cease fire will give Gold prices to cool down in the market. US FED Speakers hawkish tone makes Booster for US Dollar in the market.
XAUUSD Gold price is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has rebounded from the higher low area of the channel
Gold (XAU/USD) Range-Bound as Traders Await US PCE Data
Gold price struggles to gain momentum, trading narrowly in European session as traders await US PCE data on Friday, which could influence Fed’s rate cut path.
Fed’s Plan to Cut Rates Supports Gold
Fed’s plan to cut rates by 75 basis points in 2024 keeps US Treasury bond yields low, weighing on USD and supporting gold. Geopolitical tensions also favor gold’s upside.
Market Eyes US Economic Data
US economic releases like Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence Index will drive USD demand and impact gold price. Traders await PCE data for further direction.
Fed Officials’ Views Influence Sentiment
Fed officials express concerns about inflation and US macro data, limiting USD losses and capping gold’s upside. Market remains focused on US PCE data and geopolitical risks.
EURUSD – ECB’s Panetta Indicates Possible Rate Cut Consensus
The ECB Board member Fabio Panetta said inflation in the Euro zone is declining and soon 2% target will be achieved. The ECB has to consider rate cuts and Governing council members also discussing rate cuts with this inflation trending downwards.
EURUSD is moving in the Symmetrical triangle pattern and the market has reached the bottom area of the pattern
Fabio Panetta, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated on Monday that inflation in the Euro area was rapidly approaching the 2% target. He also noted that this declining trend in inflation was creating a scenario where a rate cut could be considered viable, according to Reuters.
Panetta elaborated, saying, “The consensus emerging – especially in recent weeks – within the ECB governing council points in this direction.”
USDJPY – MUFG Predicts USD/JPY to Fall to 140.00 by Year-End
The Analysts at MUFG Bank said BoJ rate hiked last week but Yen is depreciated last week against USD. We need FED to cut the rates in the economy to balance BoJ rate hike in the market, then only we see Yen appreciation in the market. We expected USDJPY will fall to 140.00 by this year end, if breaks 130.00 by year end. If any thing opposite to breakout the 152.00 is happened, then Kishida Government will be imbalance due to Voters dissatisfaction on his Government policies and Yen depreciations.
USDJPY is moving in an Ascending trend line and the market has reached the higher low area of the trend line
MUFG Forecasts Further Weakening of Japanese Yen
Despite the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to tighten monetary policy, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to weaken last week. MUFG Bank economists analyze the outlook for USD/JPY.
While the BoJ’s policy shift is significant, global yields remain crucial for determining the direction of the JPY. It is unlikely that BoJ action alone will alter the JPY’s trajectory, but it will likely reinforce yen appreciation when global yields decline.
MUFG predicts USD/JPY to decline to at least 140.00 by year-end, with the possibility of dropping to the mid-130.00s. They also anticipate intervention by the Japanese government promptly following any breach of 152.00, as the government opposes yen depreciation, which could lead to dissatisfaction among voters with the Kishida administration.
USDCAD – CAD Gains Ground vs. USD in Calm Week Opener
EIA energy department in America said 2024 year will be demand for more Oil than expected. On the worry side, China economy is under recovery so oil demand will be balanced with more expected.Canada GDP data is forecast to 0.40% in January month and scheduled this week. US Domestic data driven Canadian Dollar is most probable this week.
USDCAD is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has reached the higher high area of the channel
USD/CAD Eases as Dollar Retreats; CAD Supported by Oil Prices
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds support from crude oil prices, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices rise on Monday following the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) increasing its forecast prices for crude oil and petroleum products for the remainder of 2024. Additionally, global production forecasts have been reduced in response to OPEC+ cuts. WTI trades above $81.60 a barrel, up approximately $1 for the day.
On the data front, Canada’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet this week. The country will release its monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to confirm a 0.4% MoM increase in January, next Thursday. While this report may have limited impact on CAD due to the time lag between the period estimate and the actual release, it remains a notable event.
USD INDEX – Goolsbee: Housing, the Main Inflation Puzzle
The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said there will be three rate cuts in 2024 in my opinion, Last 2 months CPI data is higher that is not taken to consideration, Comparing to Last year, This year is inflation is cooling down. Housing market has to comedown then only inflation will be target to 2%. FED has to see Dual Mandate, notonly in Inflation data, look at stable prices and employment. US Dollar index moved down after this speech on more rate cuts in 2024.
USD INDEX is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has rebounded from the higher low area of the channel
Discussing the inflation outlook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that the situation is “a bit murky.”
Key Quotes:
– “The fundamental narrative hasn’t shifted significantly.”
– “The Fed must navigate its dual mandate.”
– “We’re looking for improvement in inflation reduction.”
– “Housing remains the primary enigma in inflation.”
– “The alignment of three cuts in 2024 reflects my stance.”
GBPUSD – Rebounds on UK and US Rate Cut Speculation
The retail sales Balance data in February shows 2 compared to -7 a year ago. Q4 GDP is expected to contraction at -0.30% QoQ from -0.10% QoQ in Q3. So BoE is going to do rate cut in June month is poll up by 75% from 35% according to public survey.
GBPUSD is moving in the Descending channel and the market has rebounded from the lower low area of the channel
GBP/USD Rises Amid Rate Cut Speculation
The Pound Sterling sees a mild recovery against the US Dollar during the mid-North American session, with the Greenback under pressure amidst speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June.
GBP/USD climbs higher as mixed Fed outlook and potential BoE rate cuts stir currency markets. Despite data releases failing to boost the US Dollar, with New Home Sales in February dipping slightly and the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index showing improvement, the Pound benefits from positive UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey figures indicating rising retail sales.
Looking ahead, GBP/USD traders focus on the release of Q4 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, with expectations of confirming a technical recession in the UK economy. Additionally, dovish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, suggesting rate cuts are “in play,” contribute to GBP weakness. Money market futures now estimate a 75% chance of a BoE rate cut in June, up from 35% at the beginning of last week.
AUDUSD – Holds Steady for RBA Speech; US PCE Data Awaited
The Australian Dollar remained unchanged from this week beginning, waiting for Australian Consumer confidence scheduled this week. New Home sales in US dipped to Pre pandemic levels as -0.30% in February from 1.7% in January month.
AUDUSD is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has rebounded from the higher low area of the channel
AUD/USD Steady Ahead of RBA Speech; US PCE Data Awaited
Traders await Australian Consumer Confidence figures, while Wall Street closed Monday’s session with losses ahead of the release of a US inflation report. US New Home Sales in February decreased to pre-pandemic levels, down -0.3% MoM, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey also declined, falling below expectations.
In Australia, focus lies on Consumer Confidence data and a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) member Ellis Connolly. In the US, traders anticipate the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), expected to dip from 0.4% to 0.3% MoM, while headline inflation is forecasted to increase from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM.
Federal Reserve speakers remain divided on rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expecting only one cut this year, citing potential disruption from cutting rates too soon. Conversely, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee aligns with the majority, anticipating three cuts but noting the need for more evidence of inflation decline. Fed Governor Lisa Cook echoes Bostic’s caution, emphasizing the risks of cutting rates too soon and highlighting the Fed’s dual mandate goals.
Despite positive market sentiment, AUD/USD could face challenges from geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Red Sea crisis, which may boost demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset.
NZDUSD – Holds above 0.6000 as US Dollar Softens; US PCE Data Awaited
The NZ Economy is entered in to technical recession by final quarter GDP is contracted last week. Weak Consumer spending, Whole sale trade makes RBNZ to do rate cuts in the next meeting is more expected.
NZDUSD has broken the Ascending channel in downside
NZD/USD Flat around 0.6000; Eyes on US PCE Data
Investors await the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for insights into inflation trends.
In US economic news, February New Home Sales dropped 0.3% MoM, missing expectations for a 2.3% rise, while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell to -14.4 in March. Attention turns to Friday’s PCE report, with estimates suggesting a 0.4% MoM increase in the headline PCE and a 0.3% rise in the Core PCE.
Fed policymakers signal readiness to cut rates once confident about inflation reaching the 2.0% target, with markets pricing in a 74.5% chance of a rate cut in June, per CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s economy entered a technical recession in Q4 2024 due to weak consumer spending and wholesale trade, dampening the NZD and posing challenges for NZD/USD. Weaker-than-expected GDP growth may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to consider earlier OCR cuts.
Upcoming data releases include US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, FHFA House Price Index, and New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence. Friday will feature the highly anticipated US PCE report.
CRUDE OIL – Oil Surges as Russia Reduces Production Output
The Saudi Arabia will like to extend 1 million barrels output cut per day in the next meeting. Russian Government asked Russian Oil Companies to cut 9 million barrels per day after the Sanctions and Ukraine attack on Russian Oil refineries.
XTIUSD Oil price is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has fallen from the higher high area of the channel
Oil Prices Surge Over 1% Amid Supply and Demand Factors
Oil prices rally over 1% at the week’s start, finding technical support around the crucial $80.63 level. Supply concerns arise from sanctions and drone attacks on Russian facilities, while potential global economic growth could boost demand, fueled by anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts and reduced borrowing costs in Europe.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar retreats slightly despite expectations of Fed rate cuts. Markets await Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which could spark market turbulence if inflation accelerates.
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