Gold: US economy and Chinese economy disappointment
Gold is falling from the resistance area 1830 and now the price has reached the higher low area of ascending channel. If USD strong, it will break the bottom level soon. As we recommend our users on last week friday for good sell opportunity at 1830 resistance area (click here to see)
Gold prices remain lower after surged to Resistance last Friday.
Major disappointment from the US Jobs report on Friday hammered the US economy and became warmer for other countries.
And China faced a huge blow in the services sector after the Delta variant impacted the economy more.
Due to the upcoming festival season, India is consumed more Gold in August month.
FED delaying of tapering is most profitable for non-yielding assets.
And also, the US Dollar weakness is positive for gold prices in the market.
US Dollar: FED Tapering plans delay
USDCHF is going to break the symmetrical triangle pattern soon
US Dollar index likely to push higher after Last week declines to lows.
Last week NFP data got disappointment numbers, and the Unemployment rate matched with expectations. This outcome shows a mixed bag of Domestic data in the US.
And last day is the US Labor Day holiday in the market; this week, US Domestic data will focus to finds the directions of the US Dollar.
And ECB meeting will be held this Thursday, and the Bank of Canada meeting happening tomorrow; any tapering plans will boost EUR and CAD.
Delta variant increasing step by Step in the US, and FED Powell worried of pandemic resurgence and Tapering will impact the regrowth of the economy.
So FED policy decisions are slow and accommodative until November this year.
Tapering plans are expected to start in November 2021, and rate hikes will be started in December 2022.
Goldman Sachs Downgrades US GDP Growth
Goldman Sachs Downgrades US GDP in 2021 and Upgrades in 2022.
Expected Q3 GDP Growth is 3.5% and 5.5% in Q4 but previous estimated 6.5%.
On an annual average basis, 5.7% in 2021 versus 6.2% previous target,4.6% estimated in 2022 upgraded from 4.3% as the previous reading.
And Delta variant causes more issues for the Services sector and may expect to drop in Q3 GDP.
Many stock inventories are restarted as Supply chain disruptions hit productions in Q3.
Now Delta variant is more in the US which impacted Domestic services and will be recovered in mid-2022.
EURO: ECB Versus FED meeting divergence
EURAUD is moving up after hitting the horizontal support area
EURGBP is moving in a minor ascending channel range
ECB might discuss the tapering plan in this week meeting, and this could be support for EURUSD to move higher.
And FED policy settings will be a divergence from ECB policy settings based on Delta variant and vaccination rate in respective nations.
FED may soon be tapering at the start of 2022 and announced a proper plan of tapering in 2022 itself.
But ECB will not do immediate tapering after FED Does in 2022, as risks remain elevated in the Eurozone.
Soft August jobs in the US made FED Powell slower the tapering view and maintained the same level of Purchases.
ECB maintains the same policy decision and hikes rates in 2024; no more changes are expected in the September 9th meeting.
UK Pound: the UK finds extension of Grace period on Northern Ireland:
GBPUSD hits the retest zone of the previous broken downtrend line and also reaches the horizontal support area
UK Britain finds more post-Brexit grace periods for imports to Northern Ireland, and Northern Ireland finds more permanent solutions from the UK side.
Now talks will start between the EU and UK to extend the grace period for Importing to Northern Ireland. If it did not Give, then UK Pound may face a little correction in the market.
And on the other side UK PM Johnson announced for National insurance Tax implementation, both issues are concerns for UK Pound in the near term.
Canadian Dollar: Bank of Canada Meeting Forecast
USDCAD is trying to re-enter into the major uptrend line again and trying to break the minor descending channel
Canadian Dollar moved higher to 3% from last 2 weeks, Now set ready for Correction ahead of Bank of Canada meeting which happened tomorrow.
And any tapering plans announced tomorrow makes the Canadian Dollar positive and reverses if no tapering is announced.
And also Bank of Canada does already two times tapering in the last meetings, but this time expected is quite less feature, as Oil prices were slashed by Saudi Arabia for Asian nations will impact Oil revenues for Canada.
By considering this, the Bank of Canada might not be tapering or rate hikes in the near term.
Japanese Yen: Ruling candidate Kishida speech
GBPJPY is consolidating at the lower high area of a downtrend line
CHFJPY is going to break the symmetrical triangle pattern – wait for the breakout
Japan’s Ruling party head candidate Fumio Kishida said that if he comes as Prime minister, he will maintain the inflation target to 2%, and major stimulus will be given to the economy for recovering from pandemic people.
In Japan current PM term closes in the near term, So voting will start in parliament to choose a member of the candidate. After selection, Elections will start on November 28.
And After n election manifesto given by Kishida, the Japanese stock market cheered up, and the Japanese Yen slightly increases.
Kishida said tons of trillions of stimulus packages would be implemented to recover from the blow of the pandemic in Japan.
Australian Dollar: RBA meeting outcome
GBPAUD is trying to rebound from the support area and the higher low of Ascending channel line
Today morning RBA has announced that the cash rate remains at 0.10%, and weekly asset purchases change to A$4 billion per week from A$5 billion per week.
These policy changes came from the backdrop of Australia’s robust Second quarter GDP of Australia, other impacts caused for lowering GDP growth were the Delta variant and Iron ore prices falling.
And also, China facing the Delta variant caused more impact on imports of Iron ore from Foreign countries, So Iron ore prices dipped day by day as China decreases imports from Australia.
Australia Key populated states like New South Wales and Victoria remains lockdown, and the Vaccination rate is pacing at very higher ratios.
The third Quarter of Australia looks dim, and the Fourth quarter will be bright as RBA forecasted.
New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ Governor speech
GBPNZD is rebounding from the higher low of ascending channel, horizontal support and from 50% retracement area
In the 1-hour timeframe, GBPNZD is bouncing back from the support area
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian ORR recently hinted that the Delta variant creates more impact on the New Zealand economy.
Before that, New Zealand economy is performing well in employment rates at or above the goal rate, and Inflation rates are at 2% target.
New Zealand Economy is rebounded faster than other countries are remarkable.
And RBNZ will do tapering of assets and Hikes rates in the upcoming meeting after lockdown is fully released.
Swiss Franc: Weakness of US and Swiss Domestic data
GBPCHF is moving in a minor ascending channel now
Swiss Franc made lower as Domestic data posted lower numbers and Slower Vaccinations rate in the Swiss zone.
And US Dollar brings the mixed bag of employment data, and the employment rate makes disappointment for US Dollar; this will cheer Counter pairs like CHF and JPY.
USDCHF makes a sideways range market of 0.91-0.92 in the last 1 month, and maybe waiting for the September FOMC meeting for Breakout is expected.
FED Powell delaying of tapering plans helped to boost the other currencies in the near term.
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