Crude H4 time frame Analysis Market is moving in the Descending triangle pattern and the market has reached the horizontal support area of the pattern.
Where Is Crude Oil Today
The crude oil market is facing mixed reactions as a result of the events that have occurred this past week. Today alone, this valuable commodity has seen lows reaching 95.43 and highs reaching 97.61. This is still pretty low considering they’ve managed to stay about the 100 range for quite some time now.The reason why crude oil is quite unstable is that it is being tugged at from both ends.
Crude H1 Time Frame Analysis: Market is moving in the Descending Channel and the market is rebounded from the lower low area of the Channel.
On one side, the fact that the EU is reconsidering their sanction on Russian oil and the fact that states of the IEA have released their oil reserves into the market, the demand for oil is being met and therefore, their rates are going down significantly. On the other hand, the fact that the UN suspended Russia and that several EU states are placing sanctions on Russian coal, the value of crude oil is being pulled towards resistance levels. Read on below to find out how exactly these events are impacting this valuable commodity.
EU Reconsiders Ban on Russian Oil
The EU had previously announced that they would be imposing a complete ban on the importation and use of Russian oil and gas. This sanction was meant to be imposed to pressurize Russia into bringing an end to the war with Ukraine that has been going on for about two months now. The US supported the EU in this decision and further stated that they would help supply the EU with oil and gas now that they no longer have access to their main supplier. Despite all the support that the EU was getting for this decision, they have seemed to back out due to the scarce supply of these valuable commodities around the world. The EU believes that banning the importation of these commodities at a time of worldwide shortage is not the best idea. Therefore, they have decided to postpone the sanction till August, subject to conditions still being as bad as they’re right now.
Germany is among the EU states who are most reluctant on imposing an oil sanction on Russia. They are much too worried about their own economy and the repercussions it may face as a result of this ban. An EU official had stated, “There seems to have been an effective German lobby to extend the phase-out period for existing coal contracts to four months.” Ed Moya, an Analyst at OANDA also revealed in a statement saying, “It doesn’t look like the EU will be sanctioning Russian oil anytime soon and that suggests oil will need a couple of new catalysts to make a run back towards the recent highs. The massive crude reserve release plan will provide short-term relief for oil prices but that is also happening as China’s COVID lockdowns are becoming a bigger hit on crude demand.”
UN Human Rights Suspends Russia
Just last week, Russia had agreed to a ceasefire during peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul. Despite agreeing to a ceasefire, Russia had betrayed everyone once again by attacking the civilians in Bucha near Kyiv. President Zelensky warned everyone that Russia is not to be trusted and this proved to be true. As a result of this betrayal, Russia is now in hot waters with the international community. Several sanctions are being tightened and newer ones are being decided in order to further punish Russia for its war crimes. The UN’s Human Rights Council has come out with a statement that revealed that they would be holding a vote to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council.
93 countries were in favor of the suspension, 24 countries were against it, and 58 countries were absent in the vote. Russia was suspended as a result of the vote. Shortly after the results were revealed, Russia announced that they would be exiting the Human Rights Council. Ukrainian Ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya had come out in support of Ukraine as a result of this betrayal. He states, “Bucha and dozens of other Ukrainian cities and villages, where thousands of peaceful residents have been killed, tortured, raped, abducted and robbed by the Russian army, serve as an example of how dramatically far the Russian Federation has gone from its initial declarations in the human rights domain. That is why this case is unique and today’s response is obvious and self-explanatory.”
Crude Weekly Time Frame Analysis Market is moving in an Ascending Channel and the market has reached the higher low area of the middle Ascending line.
IEA Oil Reserves
The main factor contributing to the rise in crude oil prices globally was the shortage of supply around the world. In order to ease the prices globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to supply the shortage with the oil that’s been in the reserves of their member states. This would mean that 60 million barrels of oil would now be available to supply the growing demand worldwide. The US has previously also announced that they would be releasing 180 million barrels of oil into the market in order to help the shortage.
The new total barrels of 240 million have significantly helped reduce the shortage in oil supply which has, in turn, reduced the rates of crude oil in the market. Saudi is already also supplying 400,000 barrels of oil on a daily basis to the international markets in order to meet the demand shortages. IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol had revealed in a statement on this supply of oil by the IEA. She says, “The unprecedented decision to launch two emergency oil stock releases just a month apart, and on a scale larger than anything before in the IEA’s history, reflects the determination of member countries to protect the global economy from the social and economic impacts of an oil shock following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”
Sanctions On Russian Coal
As a result of the two-faced betrayal by Russia when they attacked the civilians in Bucha despite agreeing to a ceasefire, several EU states have demanded further sanctions to be placed on this European superpower. The ban on the importation of Russian coal is being decided by the EU.
There are plans to completely ban the use of Russian fossil fuels by August 2022. This would completely destroy Russia since they’re already facing sanctions on their oil and gas. Andrzej Sados, Poland’s Ambassador to the EU had revealed Poland’s plans following the news of Russia’s betrayal. Sados reveals, “Russian coal imports will be sanctioned but even more important are assurances by the European Commission and the readiness of a majority of member states to start work on sanctioning imports of oil, gas, and nuclear fuel. The preparatory work will begin tomorrow.”
