Gold Rises Amid Israel-Rafah Strikes, Safe-Haven Demand Soars
The Gold climbs to higher in the market after the Israel attacks the camp in the Rafah region of Gaza and 35 civilians were killed and most of the people get injured in this Air strike by Israel. May 28 Tomorrow, Ireland, Spain and Norway is going to take over Gaza under their control, Now fears were sustaining in the market, clashes will be higher if European entered. UBS analysts said $2600 per ounce this year end, Citi Group predicted $3000 per Ounce in 18-24 months.
XAUUSD is moving in Ascending channel and market has fallen from the higher high area of the channel
Gold price gathers strength on Monday due to a softer US Dollar (USD) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the longer term, the precious metal might be bolstered by increasing demand from central banks. However, reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year and the Fed’s hawkish stance could exert selling pressure on XAU/USD, as higher interest rates make gold less attractive as a store of value.
On Monday, US banks will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday. Gold traders will look to Fed speeches on Tuesday, including those from Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, and Neel Kashkari. Thursday’s first reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter will be significant, with an estimated 1.5% expansion in Q1. Stronger-than-expected data could boost the US Dollar and weigh on USD-denominated gold.
Daily Digest Market Movers:
– The Ministry of Health in Gaza reported at least 35 Palestinians killed and dozens injured from Israeli air attacks on a Rafah camp on Sunday (CNN).
– Gold price has increased by over 16% year-to-date, hitting a record high of over $2,400 per ounce in May (World Gold Council).
– US Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.7% MoM in April, better than the expected -0.8%, following a downward revision of 0.8% in March.
– The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 69.1 in May from 67.4 in April, surpassing the market consensus of 67.5. One-year inflation expectations edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%, while five-year expectations eased to 3% from 3.1%.
– UBS analysts recently raised their gold price forecast to $2,600 by the end of 2024, while Citi analysts predicted gold could reach $3,000 per ounce in the next six to eighteen months.
– Gold imports to India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer, may fall nearly 20% this year as high prices prompt retail customers to exchange old jewelry for new items (Reuters).
Israeli Strike Hits Rafah After Hamas Barrage
Gold prices surged in the market following an Israeli air strike on a refugee camp in the Rafah region of Gaza, which resulted in the deaths of 35 civilians and injuries to many others. The escalation of violence has heightened geopolitical tensions and increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
XAUUSD has broken Descending channel in downside
On May 28, Ireland, Spain, and Norway are set to take control of Gaza, raising fears of further clashes as European forces enter the region. This potential for increased conflict has contributed to market uncertainty and bolstered the appeal of gold.
Analysts at UBS have forecasted that gold prices could reach $2,600 per ounce by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Citi Group analysts predict that gold could soar to $3,000 per ounce within the next 18 to 24 months. These projections reflect the anticipated continued demand for gold amid ongoing geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza reported that dozens of people were killed or injured in an explosion at a refugee camp in the Rafah area. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed an air strike targeting a Hamas compound in the area and are currently reviewing the incident. Earlier, Hamas fired eight rockets from Rafah towards Tel Aviv, marking the first long-range attacks on the city since January.
Videos from the southern Gaza Strip show a large explosion and intense fires. Hamas stated that an Israeli air strike hit a camp for displaced Palestinians northwest of Rafah, within a designated humanitarian safe zone. Women and children were among the casualties.
The IDF claimed the strike targeted Hamas militants and acknowledged reports that the explosion caused a fire that harmed civilians. The IDF stated that they used precision weapons against legitimate targets and had “eliminated” two senior Hamas figures, Yassin Rabia Rabia and Khaled Nagar Nagar, in a “precise” air strike in northwest Rafah.
The Hamas-run health ministry reported 35 deaths and dozens of injuries from the Israeli strike. A Palestinian Red Crescent Society spokesperson, quoted by the Associated Press, indicated the death toll might rise as search and rescue efforts continued in Rafah’s Tal al-Sultan neighborhood, about 2 km northwest of the city center.
Eyewitnesses described the devastation in Tal al-Sultan, with one witness telling Reuters that the whole neighborhood had been “burnt.” Another witness, Fadi Dukhan, recounted hearing a missile and finding the street covered in smoke, later discovering a girl and a young man “cut into pieces.”
Earlier on Sunday, air raid sirens sounded around Tel Aviv as central Israel came under attack from Hamas rockets fired from near Rafah. The rockets were intercepted by air defense systems or fell in fields, with no reported injuries.
Despite the International Court of Justice’s ruling to halt the offensive, Israel’s military campaign in Rafah continues. The rocket barrage highlights the ongoing threat posed by Hamas to people across Israel and illustrates the challenges faced by the Israeli army as it advances into southern Gaza to oust Hamas from its “last major stronghold.”
The rocket attack occurred ahead of expected ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Hamas’s military wing claimed the attack was in response to “the massacre of civilians.” Israel’s offensive in Rafah, which began about three weeks ago, aims to destroy the remaining Hamas battalions and rescue Israeli hostages believed to be held in the town.
The UN reports that more than 800,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah since the offensive began, with about 1.5 million sheltering there from the fighting elsewhere in Gaza. Israel’s military campaign started after Hamas-led gunmen attacked Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking 252 others hostage back to Gaza. Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry states that nearly 36,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict since then.
Dozens Killed in Israeli Rafah Assault
Gold prices surged in the market following an Israeli air strike on a refugee camp in the Rafah region of Gaza. The attack resulted in the deaths of 35 civilians and injuries to many others, escalating geopolitical tensions and increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
XAUUSD is moving in Ascending Triangle and market has reached higher low area of the pattern
Looking ahead to May 28, Ireland, Spain, and Norway are expected to take control of Gaza. This impending intervention by European forces has raised fears of further clashes and market instability, driving up gold prices even more.
UBS analysts predict that gold could reach $2,600 per ounce by the end of the year, reflecting the heightened demand amid ongoing conflicts. Citi Group offers an even more optimistic outlook, forecasting that gold could soar to $3,000 per ounce within the next 18 to 24 months. These projections underscore the precious metal’s appeal as a refuge in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
At least 35 Palestinians were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a camp for displaced people in the southern city of Rafah late Sunday, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. The strike occurred just two days after the International Court of Justice issued a ruling ordering Israel to halt its operations to spare civilian lives.
The Israeli military stated that the strike was based on “precise intelligence” targeting “legitimate targets under international law,” and confirmed that it killed two senior Hamas officials responsible for operations in the West Bank. The strike hit an overcrowded area in northwest Rafah, where many people had fled to escape the ongoing assault on the city.
Footage on social media showed fire spreading through tents as people pulled out the dead and injured. The International Committee of the Red Cross reported that its teams were treating those affected by the strike at a field hospital and emphasized the importance of protecting civilians.
The area struck was not among those ordered to be evacuated by the Israeli military, and it had attracted many people fleeing more dangerous zones. The Israeli military acknowledged reports that civilians were harmed by the strike and the resulting fire, stating that the incident is under review.
Despite the International Court ruling, Israel’s military continues its operations against Hamas in Rafah. Israeli officials interpret the ruling as allowing the incursion to proceed with caution, emphasizing that their military actions are targeted and not a full invasion.
Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which had been set to resume following a meeting in Paris, have stalled. Talks aimed at exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and reaching a combat pause have faltered due to Hamas’ demand for an end to the war. Israel maintains that the war can only conclude with the defeat of Hamas.
In a recent ruling, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to immediately halt its military offensive and any other actions in the Rafah Governorate that could lead to the destruction of the Palestinian population. This ruling has led to differing interpretations, with Israeli officials asserting that it prohibits genocide but allows targeted military operations to continue.
On Sunday, air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv as Hamas launched eight missiles from Rafah. Israel’s air defense system intercepted all the missiles, which marked the first such attack on Tel Aviv in months. Israeli military spokesmen cited this as evidence of Hamas smuggling new weapons into Rafah, justifying the need for ongoing military operations.
The International Court’s ruling may prompt member countries to bring the case to the United Nations Security Council, potentially resulting in sanctions if Israel does not comply. Israel would rely on a US veto in the Security Council to avoid sanctions, but recent tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden have raised concerns about the reliability of US support.
The Rafah operation has intensified the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with nearly a million Palestinians fleeing to already devastated areas. Aid from Egypt has been halted, exacerbating the situation. Some aid began to enter Gaza through Israel’s Kerem Shalom crossing on Sunday.
The conflict began on October 7, when thousands of Hamas operatives crossed into southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250 more. Israel’s counterattack has resulted in the deaths of approximately 35,000 Gazans, according to Hamas officials who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters. The US and European Union consider Hamas a terrorist organization.
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