Top 5 Market Analysis – Mar 21, 2025

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USDJPY is moving in a descending channel and the market has reached the lower high area of the channel

Daily Forex Trade Setups Mar 21, 2025

Stay on top of market trends with our Daily Forex Trade Setups (Mar 21, 2025)

USDJPY – Japanese Yen Under Pressure as USD Shines Bright – What’s Next?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has always had a special place in the global currency market, often seen as a go-to safe haven when things get shaky. But recently, there’s been a lot of buzz surrounding the Yen for different reasons—and if you’ve been wondering why everyone’s talking about it, you’re in the right place.

Let’s break it all down in simple, everyday language. No complex financial jargon, just a deep dive into what’s going on with the Yen, the US Dollar (USD), and what could be next.

Japan’s Inflation Is Cooling Down – What That Means for the Yen

Let’s start with the basics. Japan recently released new inflation numbers—and they caught a few people off guard. The National Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is just a fancy way of measuring how much prices have gone up, showed a slowdown in February.

To put it simply: things aren’t getting more expensive as fast as they were the previous month. That may sound like a good thing (because who likes rising prices, right?), but for central banks like the Bank of Japan (BoJ), it’s a bit of a curveball.

Wait… Why Would Slower Inflation Matter?

Well, Japan has been battling low inflation for decades. In fact, they’ve been trying to raise it to around 2% to stimulate economic growth. The recent data showed prices rising, yes, but not as much as before. That can make it tricky for the BoJ to justify aggressive interest rate hikes in the short term.

But here’s the twist: while inflation is cooling off a bit, wage growth in Japan is looking strong—and that’s a big deal.

Strong Wage Growth Could Be a Game Changer

Japan’s annual spring labor talks (called “Shunto”) just wrapped up, and the early results were pretty surprising. For the third year in a row, companies are agreeing to higher wages.

You might wonder why this matters for the currency. Well, higher wages can lead to more consumer spending, which could eventually push inflation higher. And if inflation picks up again, that gives the BoJ a reason to increase interest rates.

Raising interest rates tends to strengthen a country’s currency. So, if Japan keeps heading in that direction, it might breathe some life back into the Yen.

BoJ’s Governor Sounds Optimistic

Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan’s Governor, chimed in with some pretty direct comments. He said the recent wage growth fits with the BoJ’s expectations, and hinted that they don’t want to wait too long before taking action. That means rate hikes could still be on the table if the broader economic outlook supports it.

The US Dollar Is Holding Its Ground (But For How Long?)

While Japan is weighing its next moves, the US has its own economic story playing out. The Federal Reserve (Fed), which is the central bank in the United States, made it clear that they only expect two small interest rate cuts in 2025.

That might not sound like much, but it’s actually a more cautious stance than some people expected. Because of that, the US Dollar has been getting a little boost lately.

Even though the USD has recovered slightly from its recent lows, the long-term picture isn’t entirely rosy. The Fed also trimmed its growth forecast and highlighted concerns around trade tensions and economic uncertainties—especially related to tariffs.

So, while the Dollar has some momentum, it’s not a runaway train.

Global Tensions: A Reminder of Why the Yen Is Still a Safe Haven

Here’s where things get a bit tense. Beyond inflation and interest rates, there’s the whole issue of geopolitical risk—which simply means trouble brewing in different parts of the world.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Heats Up

Both Russia and Ukraine have ramped up aerial attacks. Ukraine even targeted a key Russian airbase recently. This creates a lot of global uncertainty and tends to push investors toward safer assets—like the Japanese Yen.

USDJPY is moving in an uptrend channel

Middle East Concerns Return

Tensions in the Middle East have also flared up again. After a ceasefire, Israel resumed airstrikes in Gaza, and Hamas responded with rockets. Any kind of conflict in that region tends to send shockwaves through global markets, nudging people to look for stability—which often means buying Yen.

So even if Japan’s inflation numbers were soft, the Yen is still a go-to for investors when things feel shaky.

BoJ vs. Fed: A Tale of Two Policies

Let’s step back and look at the bigger picture for a second. The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are walking two very different paths.

• The BoJ is showing signs of slowly stepping away from its super-low interest rate strategy.
• The Fed is moving toward easing its policy by cutting rates, albeit very cautiously.

This gap between the two strategies is what traders and investors call a “divergence.” And it’s important, because it can shape the direction of currency pairs like USD/JPY.

In plain terms, even if the USD/JPY pair moves higher short-term due to a stronger Dollar, the longer-term outlook might be more favorable for the Yen—especially if the BoJ starts hiking rates while the Fed is cutting.

Final Thoughts: What Does This All Mean for You?

If you’re someone who watches currencies, travels internationally, or trades forex, it’s an exciting (and kind of wild) time. Here’s what we can take away from all this:

• The Japanese Yen has been under pressure, mainly because of cooling inflation.
• But strong wage growth in Japan could turn things around by supporting more inflation and rate hikes.
• The US Dollar has regained some strength thanks to cautious Fed policy and a weaker economic outlook.
• Geopolitical tensions are keeping the Yen in demand as a safety net when things feel unstable.
• Diverging policies between the Fed and BoJ are likely to create some interesting moves in the currency markets.

For now, things are balanced on a knife’s edge. The Yen may be soft today, but with shifting fundamentals and a globally uncertain backdrop, its role as a safe-haven currency isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Keep an eye on wage trends, inflation updates, and any surprises from central banks—because those are the real game-changers.

And remember, in the world of currencies, it’s not just about who’s stronger—it’s about who’s changing faster.

USDCAD – U.S. Dollar Climbs While Canadian Confidence Crumbles

Global financial markets are buzzing with uncertainty, and the USD/CAD currency pair is feeling the heat. If you’re wondering why the U.S. Dollar is rising while the Canadian Dollar seems stuck under pressure, you’re not alone. Let’s break this down in a simple, easy-to-understand way—no confusing jargon or technical chart talk, just the real story behind what’s going on and what’s driving the shift in this currency pair.

Safe-Haven Surge: Why the U.S. Dollar Is in Demand

When the world feels unpredictable, people often turn to the U.S. Dollar like it’s a safety blanket—and for good reason. It’s seen as a “safe-haven” asset, especially when global tensions rise or economic news gets messy. And right now, we’re seeing exactly that.

Global Tensions Stirring the Pot

With trade tensions escalating once again—especially thanks to the U.S. reintroducing tariffs on several countries—investors are getting nervous. And nervous investors usually start pulling their money out of risky markets and pouring it into assets they trust, like the U.S. Dollar.

USDCAD is moving into a Symmetrical Triangle

This isn’t just about one country or one policy. It’s a ripple effect. Uncertainty around international trade, mixed with fears of slower global growth, is creating a shaky foundation. And when things get shaky, the U.S. Dollar often shines.

The Fed Speaks: Powell Acknowledges the Challenge

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently spoke out about the current economic landscape. While he brushed off inflation concerns from tariffs as “temporary,” he didn’t ignore the broader picture. He admitted that assessing the full impact of ongoing trade policies and economic shifts is challenging—even for the Fed.

That kind of honesty can be reassuring. It tells the markets that while things are uncertain, the Fed is paying close attention. And that kind of confidence can help support the U.S. Dollar even further.

Canadian Dollar Under Pressure: What’s Dragging CAD Down?

While the U.S. Dollar is benefiting from global fear and economic caution, the Canadian Dollar is dealing with its own set of problems—some political, some financial, and all quite serious.

Political Uncertainty in Canada

One of the big headlines in Canada right now is the political shakeup. Rumors are swirling that the new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, may be planning a snap election as early as April 28. That’s raising eyebrows across the financial world.

Elections—even the possibility of them—create a lot of unknowns. Investors don’t like unknowns. They want stability, predictable policies, and a sense that someone’s steering the ship with a steady hand. Right now, they’re not getting that vibe from Canada, and it’s pushing the Canadian Dollar lower.

Tariff Troubles with the U.S.

To make matters worse, U.S. trade policy isn’t helping Canada at all. In fact, it’s hurting. U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at slapping new tariffs on Canadian imports, adding to the existing duties on Canadian steel and aluminum.

This kind of trade friction is a big deal. It puts Canadian exporters at a disadvantage, discourages foreign investment, and creates uncertainty around the future of U.S.-Canada economic relations. When investors see this kind of instability, they often move their money elsewhere—and that usually means out of the Canadian Dollar.

Interest Rate Gap: The BoC’s Cut Widening the Divide

Another major factor weighing on the Canadian Dollar is the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to cut interest rates. The BoC lowered its key rate to 2.75%, and while that might sound small, it’s actually a big deal in the forex world.

Why Interest Rates Matter

Interest rates are like magnets for money. Higher interest rates generally attract investors because they offer better returns. Lower rates? Not so much.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping its rates higher, and the Bank of Canada cutting theirs, the gap between the two is growing. That gap makes the U.S. Dollar look more appealing, especially to big investors who are trying to get the most bang for their buck.

This “rate differential,” as it’s called, is a quiet but powerful force that can shift currency trends significantly over time. Right now, it’s favoring the USD and pulling the CAD down along the way.

U.S. Data Adds to the Dollar’s Strength

On the numbers side of things, recent U.S. economic data has been a mixed bag—but even that seems to be playing in favor of the U.S. Dollar.

• Jobless Claims: The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the U.S. ticked up slightly, but not by much. While this could signal a softening labor market, it’s not enough to worry investors.
• Manufacturing Activity: The latest manufacturing survey showed a bit of a slowdown, but it still came in stronger than expected. That suggests the U.S. economy is holding up better than many feared.

These small wins keep investor confidence in the U.S. relatively strong, which continues to support the Dollar.

USDCAD is moving in a box pattern and the market has fallen from the resistance area of the pattern

So, What Does It All Mean for USD/CAD?

Let’s take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The USD/CAD pair isn’t just reacting to one or two pieces of news—it’s caught in a tug-of-war between two very different economic stories.

• On one side, you’ve got the U.S., with a strong currency driven by global fears, higher interest rates, and an economy that’s still showing resilience.
• On the other side, you’ve got Canada, dealing with political uncertainty, tariff threats, and a central bank that just made borrowing cheaper (which often weakens a currency).

So, it’s no surprise that the U.S. Dollar is gaining ground against the Canadian Dollar.

Final Thoughts: Why This Matters to You

Whether you’re a casual observer, a trader, or just someone who wants to stay informed, the movement of currency pairs like USD/CAD can tell you a lot about what’s going on in the world.

This current shift in USD/CAD is about more than just numbers on a screen—it’s a reflection of deeper global themes. Rising tensions, political uncertainty, and shifting economic policies are reshaping the landscape in real-time.

If you’re keeping an eye on the Canadian or U.S. economy, or even just curious about how world events impact your wallet, this is definitely something worth following. The USD/CAD dance is just one piece of the puzzle, but it gives us a window into how connected—and unpredictable—our financial world really is.

Stay curious, stay informed, and keep asking questions. Because in the world of currencies, there’s always more going on than meets the eye.

GBPUSD – UK Currency Weakens as U.S. Federal Reserve Stays the Course

The Pound Sterling is facing a fresh wave of pressure, and if you’ve been keeping an eye on currency markets, you might have noticed its recent dip against the US Dollar. If you’re wondering what’s really going on behind the scenes—don’t worry, I’ve got you covered.

GBPUSD has broken the Ascending channel in the downside

In this article, we’ll break down what’s causing the recent weakness in the British Pound, why the US Federal Reserve is playing it cool with interest rates, and what the Bank of England is thinking. No complicated market charts, no hard-to-understand lingo—just a clear, human-style explanation. Let’s dive in.

The Fed Is in No Hurry to Cut Rates — And It’s Making Waves

The U.S. Federal Reserve (aka the Fed) made it crystal clear: interest rates are staying put, at least for now. That may not sound dramatic at first, but in the currency world, it’s a big deal.

Why? Because when the Fed hits the brakes on rate cuts, the U.S. Dollar often gets stronger. Investors love stability, and when interest rates stay higher for longer, it attracts more money into the Dollar. That’s exactly what’s happening right now—making the Dollar stronger and the Pound weaker in comparison.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to “unusual uncertainty” in the U.S. economy. One big reason for that uncertainty? The new trade and tariff policies being rolled out by President Trump. These changes could shake things up by increasing costs for businesses and slowing down growth—basically, they could stir the pot on inflation and make the economic picture murkier.

And while the Fed hasn’t ruled out a future rate cut (some bets are being placed on June), they’re clearly in “wait and see” mode. That cautious stance is giving the U.S. Dollar some extra muscle.

What’s Happening with the Bank of England and the British Pound?

Now let’s flip over to the UK. The Pound isn’t just struggling because of a strong U.S. Dollar—it’s also got its own problems to deal with at home.

The Bank of England (BoE) recently decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5%. That decision wasn’t a surprise, but it still sent a signal to the market: the BoE isn’t ready to pivot aggressively toward rate cuts just yet.

Here’s where things get interesting: out of the nine members on the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, only one voted to actually lower rates. The rest want to hold steady. That shows most officials still think inflation is a bit too sticky to start easing aggressively.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did offer a little bit of optimism though. He mentioned that he believes the path of interest rates is “gradually declining.” In other words, we’re not there yet—but we’re getting closer to the point where rate cuts might happen.

Wage Growth and Inflation: The Sticky Situation

One of the biggest concerns for the Bank of England right now is inflation—specifically, inflation caused by rising wages.

According to the latest data, wages in the UK (excluding bonuses) are growing at a solid pace of 5.9%. That’s not small potatoes. When people earn more, they tend to spend more, which can keep inflation elevated—especially in sectors like services, where demand can stay high.

This is why the BoE is hesitant to start cutting rates too soon. If inflation hasn’t cooled off enough, loosening policy could add fuel to the fire. And until that wage-inflation link weakens, the BoE is likely to keep things tight.

Investors and economists are now waiting eagerly for the upcoming inflation data (Consumer Price Index for February) to get a better picture of how prices are behaving. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, don’t be surprised if the Pound takes another hit.

Global Trade Tensions Are Adding to the Uncertainty

Outside of interest rates and inflation, there’s another issue looming in the background: global trade tension.

President Trump is reportedly preparing to impose reciprocal tariffs in early April. What does that mean? Basically, he wants to slap equal tariffs on any goods traded between the U.S. and its partners. If you sell something to the U.S. and the U.S. sells the same thing back, both sides pay the same tariff.

Sounds fair in theory, but in practice? It can trigger a trade war. And that’s bad news for the global economy.

GBPUSD is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has fallen from the higher high area of the channel

Markets tend to get nervous when trade tensions flare up. Investors pull their money into safe-haven assets (like the U.S. Dollar), and currencies like the Pound often lose out. Add this to the uncertainty from central banks, and it’s a recipe for more volatility ahead.

So, Why Is the Pound Really Falling? Let’s Simplify It

Let’s break it all down into plain English:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve is keeping rates high for now, which strengthens the Dollar.
• Uncertainty around U.S. policy (thanks to new tariffs) is making the Fed cautious—and investors love that kind of caution.
• The Bank of England also isn’t ready to lower rates, but inflation—especially due to wage growth—is keeping them on edge.
• Trade tensions globally are pushing riskier currencies (like the Pound) into a weaker spot.

So while nothing major has “gone wrong” with the Pound, it’s caught in the middle of a storm—strong U.S. Dollar, sticky UK inflation, and global trade worries. Together, that’s pulling it lower against the Greenback.

Final Thoughts: Is There Hope for the Pound?

Absolutely. Currency markets move in cycles, and this current phase might just be part of a broader adjustment.

If inflation in the UK starts cooling off and the BoE feels confident enough to start easing, that could give the Pound a lift. Similarly, if the U.S. economy softens and the Fed finally moves toward rate cuts, the Dollar could lose some of its shine—giving other currencies, like the Pound, a chance to bounce back.

In the short term, though, don’t be surprised if the Pound keeps facing headwinds. But if you’re a long-term thinker, the story isn’t over yet—far from it. The Pound has weathered plenty of storms in the past, and this is just another chapter in its ongoing journey.

So, whether you’re a trader, an investor, or just someone curious about the economy—keep watching the headlines, stay informed, and know that in the world of currency, things can change faster than you think.

EURGBP – Sterling Strength Slows Euro’s Climb: What’s Holding EUR/GBP Back?

When it comes to currency pairs like EUR/GBP, there’s always something going on behind the scenes. It’s not just about charts or numbers—sometimes, it’s more about what policymakers say and how economies are feeling. Lately, there’s been a tug-of-war between the British Pound and the Euro, and right now, it looks like the Pound might have the upper hand.

EURGBP is moving in a box pattern and the market has fallen from the resistance area of the pattern

Let’s break it all down in simple terms so you can understand what’s really moving this pair and why the Euro might be in for a bit of a rough ride.

UK Confidence Is Slowly Climbing, and That’s a Big Deal

The UK’s economy has had its fair share of ups and downs lately, but there are a few signs that things are starting to look up—at least a little bit. One key signal? Consumer confidence.

GfK Consumer Confidence Creeps Up Again

In March 2025, the GfK Consumer Confidence index ticked up by one point to -19. Sure, that number is still negative, but here’s the important part: it’s the second month in a row that the index has improved. From -22 in January to -20 in February, and now -19—it’s moving in the right direction. That tells us people in the UK are feeling just a bit better about their financial future.

Why does that matter? Well, confident consumers tend to spend more. And when people spend more, businesses thrive, jobs get added, and the whole economy starts to gain momentum. That kind of environment usually supports a stronger currency—so it’s good news for the Pound.

Bank of England Isn’t Rushing Into Rate Cuts

One of the biggest reasons the British Pound is holding strong right now has to do with the Bank of England (BoE) and its cautious approach to interest rate changes.

A Conservative Stand on Interest Rates

At their latest meeting, the BoE decided to keep interest rates steady at 4.5%. That wasn’t a surprise—but here’s where it gets interesting. Out of the nine people on the Monetary Policy Committee, eight voted to leave rates unchanged. Only one person wanted a cut. That’s fewer than what many market watchers expected.

Basically, the BoE is saying, “We’re not cutting rates just yet. Inflation is still something we’re watching closely.” In fact, they even raised their inflation forecast for the year. That tells us they’re not confident enough yet to ease up, and they want to make sure prices don’t surge again.

This kind of cautious approach can help keep the Pound strong. When a central bank is in no rush to cut rates, it often signals stability and control—two things that investors love.

Euro Is Feeling the Pressure From Global Uncertainty

Now let’s look at the other side of the EUR/GBP coin—the Euro. Right now, it’s kind of stuck in a tough spot, and there are a few reasons why.

Christine Lagarde’s Warning: Tariffs Are Trouble

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde recently spoke about a potential storm brewing on the horizon—US tariffs. The concern is that the US, under President Donald Trump, might hit European imports with a hefty 25% tariff.

That’s not just a political move—it could have real consequences. According to Lagarde, such tariffs could shrink the Eurozone’s economic growth by 0.3% in just one year. That may not sound like much, but for an already fragile economy, it’s a hit that could really slow things down.

ECB Might Be Leaning Toward Rate Cuts

To make matters more complicated for the Euro, there’s growing talk within the ECB about possibly cutting interest rates in 2025. With global trade tensions rising, they’re worried that slower growth could lead to deeper economic problems.

If rate cuts do happen, it’ll likely make the Euro less attractive to investors. Lower rates usually mean lower returns on investments, and that tends to weaken a currency.

EUR/GBP Outlook: It’s Not All About the Charts

So what does all this mean for EUR/GBP? While the pair might bounce up and down day-to-day, the bigger picture is what really matters. And right now, the story is leaning more in favor of the British Pound.

• The UK is seeing slightly better consumer sentiment.
• The Bank of England is playing it safe and not rushing into rate cuts.
• Meanwhile, the Euro is weighed down by trade concerns and talk of easing policies.

EURGBP is moving in a box pattern and the market has rebounded from the support area of the pattern

This mix of confidence in the UK and uncertainty in the Eurozone is likely to keep pressure on the Euro for a while—especially if we continue to see positive signals from the UK economy.

Final Thoughts: Watching the Bigger Picture, Not Just the Numbers

At the end of the day, currency movements aren’t just about numbers or charts—they’re about people, policies, and perceptions. Right now, the people in the UK are feeling just a little more hopeful. The policymakers are being careful and calculated. And the Eurozone is facing some serious external pressures that it doesn’t fully control.

If you’re keeping an eye on EUR/GBP, these are the kinds of stories you need to follow. Forget the complicated technical jargon for a minute and just focus on what’s happening in the real world. That’s where the real direction often comes from.

The road ahead for this currency pair may be bumpy, but one thing’s clear—the Pound has some solid ground to stand on, while the Euro might have to fight a little harder to keep up.

NZDUSD – Kiwi Dollar Climbs as New Zealand Posts Surprise Trade Surplus in February

The NZD/USD currency pair has recently made a slight comeback, grabbing attention after New Zealand posted a surprisingly strong trade surplus. If you’ve been watching the forex world or just want to understand what’s behind the headlines, stick with me. I’m breaking it all down in simple terms—no complicated charts or technical talk here. Just the facts, the insights, and what really matters to traders and curious minds alike.

New Zealand’s Trade Surplus: A Welcome Surprise

Let’s start with what got everyone talking.

New Zealand’s economy gave us something positive for a change. After facing a trade deficit in the previous month, the country flipped the script and posted a $510 million surplus in February. That’s a pretty big jump, especially considering they were sitting at a $544 million deficit just a month ago.

NZDUSD is moving in an Ascending channel and the market has fallen from the higher high area of the channel

So, what caused this turnaround?

Well, it mainly came down to exports. New Zealand’s goods exports surged by 16%, reaching a solid $6.74 billion. Meanwhile, imports only increased slightly—just 2.1% to $6.23 billion. That difference was enough to push the trade balance into surplus territory.

For a country like New Zealand, which relies heavily on its exports (especially in agriculture, dairy, and natural products), this kind of trade data is a big deal. It signals stronger demand for its goods overseas and suggests a healthier economic environment, at least on the surface.

A Bump in the Road: Why This Doesn’t Mean Smooth Sailing for NZD/USD

Now, you might be thinking: “Great trade data, so the NZD should be shooting up, right?”

Not so fast.

Even though the trade balance numbers are positive, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) isn’t exactly skyrocketing. It did pause its three-day losing streak and crept slightly higher, but gains have been limited.

Here’s why: The US Dollar (USD) is still strong.

When we talk about currency pairs, it’s not just about one side. While the NZD had good news, the USD had its own reasons to stay firm—and that’s keeping the NZD/USD pair from gaining more ground.

One of the big factors behind the USD’s strength is risk aversion. Basically, investors around the world are getting a little nervous. Global trade tensions are heating up again, with the US making noise about new tariffs and policy shifts. Whenever that happens, people tend to move their money into “safer” assets—and the US Dollar is one of the safest of them all.

What’s Going on in the US?

Let’s take a quick look at what’s been happening stateside.

The Initial Jobless Claims in the US came in at 223,000 for the week ending March 15. That’s a bit higher than the previous week (which was revised to 221,000), but still below the forecast of 224,000. This shows the US job market is still holding up pretty well.

Also, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey—which gives us a snapshot of business conditions—fell to 12.5 from 18.1 in February. Even though that’s a drop, it’s still better than expected (the market was looking for 8.5).

So, even with a few cracks showing, the US economy still looks solid enough that investors aren’t ready to give up on the Dollar.

What’s Ahead for the NZD? Interest Rates in Focus

Now let’s zoom back into New Zealand.

Even though the economy is slowly recovering from a recession, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. There are still weak spots, and policymakers are well aware of that.

In fact, the market is expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut interest rates later this year—possibly by around 60 basis points. That’s a pretty clear signal that the central bank believes growth needs a little extra help.

Lower interest rates usually make a currency less attractive to investors. So even with good trade data, if rate cuts are on the horizon, the NZD could struggle to maintain upward momentum.

It’s kind of like getting a raise at work but also finding out your rent is about to go up—you win in one area but lose in another.

NZDUSD is rebounding from the major support area

What Should You Watch Moving Forward?

If you’re following the NZD/USD pair, here are a few non-technical things to keep on your radar:

• Central bank decisions – What the RBNZ and Federal Reserve say about interest rates can quickly shift the direction of the pair.
• Global trade news – US tariff policies, especially those affecting key sectors, can impact both currencies.
• Economic health indicators – Even simple data points like jobless claims or manufacturing surveys give you clues about market sentiment.

Final Summary: A Mixed Bag, But the Story Isn’t Over

The recent bounce in NZD/USD after New Zealand’s strong trade balance report is a good reminder that currencies are influenced by more than just one piece of news. Yes, the trade surplus was a nice surprise. It shows there’s still demand for New Zealand’s exports and hints that the economy isn’t in as rough shape as before.

But—and it’s a big but—the broader picture is still cloudy. With expected interest rate cuts in New Zealand and a strong US Dollar driven by global uncertainty, the NZD/USD pair has its work cut out if it wants to move higher.

If you’re trading or just observing the market, keep your eyes peeled for how these economic stories evolve. The NZD might have paused its losing streak for now, but whether it turns into a full recovery will depend on what happens next—not just in New Zealand, but around the world.

So, stay curious, stay informed, and remember: the forex market isn’t just numbers—it’s a global story unfolding in real time.